The upcoming jobs report is highly anticipated due to the current macroeconomic landscape, with inflation under control and growth slowing but not in recession territory. The market is nervous about a potential hard landing, given tight financial conditions and the yield curve inversion. Goldman Sachs expects a slight miss in the jobs report, which could lead to short-term risk-off sentiment before recovery. A beat in the jobs report would result in equities rising, bonds falling, and the USD strengthening. The unemployment rate is also crucial, with a higher print potentially leading to a 50bps cut in September. The Sahm rule, which has never failed to predict a recession, has been triggered, adding to market anxiety.
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