Poll: Jon Tester faces tough deficit in pivotal Montana Senate race

AARP polling shows Montana Republican Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in a critical 2024 election race, which could determine Senate control in 2025. Winning Montana is crucial for Democrats to maintain a 50-50 Senate margin, as West Virginia is likely to flip Republican. Sheehy leads Tester 49% to 41% with third-party candidates included and 51% to 45% in a head-to-head race. Republican strategists are optimistic about flipping the Montana seat, especially with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket. Protecting Tester's seat is the Democratic Party's top priority in the Senate, with Democrats spending $128 million on advertising compared to Republicans' $109 million. Tester, a unique candidate who has won in a deeply-red state, faces his first campaign with former President Trump on the ballot, who won Montana by 16 and 21 percentage points in 2020 and 2016, respectively. The AARP poll surveyed 1,064 likely voters in Montana, with a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.