Bitcoin Bull Run Hasn’t Died—It’s Evolving, Says Galaxy Research Head

Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, believes that bitcoin's current price action is not a sign of a failed cycle, but rather a market changing hands and character. The driver capping bitcoin's near-term upside is exogenous, specifically the US-China tariff risk, rather than any structural deterioration in the asset's fundamentals or adoption. Thorn describes the current price action as a slow and volatile climb, with the market still climbing a wall of worry. He notes that bitcoin is not yet trading like gold, as marginal flows still treat it as a risk asset, but this is changing as passive, long-term allocators absorb distribution from older cohorts. The process of significant distribution from old hands to new hands has created resistance, but it is a healthy process that is widening ownership and maturing the market. Thorn expects bitcoin to converge towards a gold-like profile as ownership migrates to institutions, with BlackRock and Fidelity driving the digital gold narrative. The near-term overhang is the tariff scare, which caused a leverage washout and stalled a strong October, but Thorn anticipates a compromise rather than a protracted trade war. He has lowered his year-end bitcoin price prediction to $130,000, describing the path as a slow, volatile stair-step higher. Thorn believes that institutional distribution channels, such as wealth-platform access and custody bank initiatives, are powerful accelerants that will drive bitcoin's adoption. The base case he outlines is not euphoria but endurance, with the bull run evolving rather than dying, and he expects bitcoin to become a widely owned macro asset in everybody's portfolio.