Bitcoin Could Drop To $97,500 If This Key On-Chain Level Fails, Glassnode Warns

Glassnode reports Bitcoin is at risk of a deeper correction based on its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model. The model identifies price levels correlated with the amount of BTC supply in profit or loss. Bitcoin's recent price drop has placed it near the 0.85 quantile, representing a point where 15% of the supply would be at a loss. Historically, failing to hold this level has indicated market weakness and led to further declines toward the 0.75 quantile. The 0.75 quantile currently sits at $97,500, a level last seen during mid-2024's consolidation period. Bitcoin has also fallen below the average cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) at $113,100. STHs are considered weaker market participants prone to panic selling. This situation typically precedes a mid-term bearish phase as STHs capitulate. Bitcoin's inability to sustain a price recovery keeps it around $109,100. The crucial factor now is whether Bitcoin can hold above the 0.85 quantile to avoid a potential retest of the 0.75 quantile.