UN emissions report: The planet is falling well short of its climate targets

The UN's latest Emissions Gap Report paints a grim picture for future generations due to insufficient climate action. Global projected temperature increases are significantly above the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius. While 2025 projections show a slight improvement from last year, some of this is due to methodological changes. The upcoming US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will effectively negate these gains. Current projections indicate a warming of 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2030, compared to last year's 2.5 to 2.8 degrees Celsius. Achieving the 1.5-degree goal by 2100 requires a 55 percent emissions cut by 2035, while a 2-degree goal necessitates a 35 percent cut by 2030, neither of which appear likely given current pledges and the geopolitical climate. The UN warns that exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius warming is very probable within the next decade. Reversing climate change after crossing irreversible tipping points, like the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, is a risky last resort. Beyond rising temperatures, consequences include crop losses, water scarcity, wildfires, coastal flooding, and mass migration. A positive note is the exceeding performance of solar and wind energy development, making their expansion more feasible. Carbon dioxide removal technologies are a potential but uncertain and costly supplementary option.