RSS Daring Fireball By John Gruber

Mamdani Was a Great Candidate Who Ran a Great Campaign ... for New York City

Preliminary exit polls revealed a significant generational divide in Mamdani's support, with voters under 45 strongly backing him, while older voters favored Cuomo. An education divide was also evident, with college graduates supporting Mamdani and those without college degrees narrowly favoring Cuomo. The phrasing "by 55 percent" was unclear, potentially misleading readers about the margin of victory among college graduates. Actual exit poll data showed Mamdani secured 57 percent of college graduate votes compared to Cuomo's 38 percent. Among voters without college degrees, Cuomo held a narrow lead with 47 percent to Mamdani's 42 percent. Mamdani's overall win was attributed to the high proportion of college-educated voters in New York City. This electorate's educational makeup differs from the national average, where only 43 percent of voters held college degrees in the previous presidential election. Nationally, Democrats have historically performed well with college-educated voters against Republicans. However, the crucial demographic for Democrats to gain ground with is voters lacking college degrees. Education level is identified as the most critical demographic gap for Democrats to address, surpassing race, gender, income, and age. In the 2020 presidential election, the margin between Biden and Trump among non-college-educated voters was significantly smaller than among college-educated voters.
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