Swing-seat fears hit House GOP ahead of 2026

Top GOP operatives are worried that House Republicans leaving their seats to run for higher office could cost their party the speaker's gavel. This concern comes after Democrats narrowed the margins in two Florida congressional districts, sparking fears about swing seats in next year's elections. Republicans are particularly concerned about three House members considering statewide office: Mike Lawler in New York, John James in Michigan, and Andy Barr in Kentucky. These districts are crucial, as Trump won them by narrow margins, and the incumbents' departures could make them vulnerable to Democratic takeover. Trump's agenda is at risk if Republicans lose seats, and he has expressed concern about the fragile House majority. Trump even pulled his nomination of Elise Stefanik for UN ambassador, fearing her seat could be lost. Sitting incumbents have an advantage over new candidates, and their departures could force the national party to spend money defending seats that could be spent elsewhere. The NRCC is asking members to give them a heads up if they plan to leave, so they can ensure a strong candidate is in place to defend the seat. This is a broader fear about swing seats next year, as Republicans try to maintain their majority. Overall, the GOP is worried that these departures could expand the map for the opposition party and cost them the speaker's gavel.