Some oil patch execs say "drill baby drill" isn't happening

President Trump's "drill baby drill" mantra may not be resonating with oil producers in the heart of the oil patch, who are instead being cautious about growing output due to trade policies. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released a quarterly survey of energy executives, which showed that overall activity is contracting and production is dipping. Many executives criticized Trump's tariffs, saying they are harming the domestic energy industry and causing volatility that discourages drilling. The survey found that almost half of executives expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than they planned at the start of the year. If oil prices drop to $60 per barrel, 61% of executives expect their production to fall slightly over the next 12 months. The recent steel tariff hike is also expected to lead to fewer wells being drilled. Despite Trump's efforts to make drilling easier, the economic picture and shale producers' focus on capital discipline and shareholder payouts are working against near-term growth. US output is already at record levels, but the country's dominance in oil production may not lead to increased drilling in the short term. The global market, including OPEC+, will continue to influence domestic drilling decisions. The Energy Department's latest outlook projects a slight drop in oil production in the second half of this year and a slight annual decline in 2026.