5 lessons on finding truth in an uncertain world

Adam Kucharski, a professor of epidemiology, has written a book called "Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty". The book explores the concept of proof and how it is established in various fields, law, and medicine. Kucharski argues that assuming something is self-evident can be dangerous, as it can lead to false assumptions. In practice, proof requires balancing too much belief and too much skepticism, and setting the bar for evidence is crucial. Life is full of "weak evidence" problems, where decisions must be made without strong evidence, and misinterpreting weak evidence can lead to errors. Predictions are easier than taking action, and understanding cause and effect is more important than making predictions. Technology is changing our concept of proof, with computer-aided proofs and AI algorithms making discoveries, but also raising questions about trust and understanding. The use of technology in science and proof is challenging traditional views and raising questions about what constitutes proof. Ultimately, understanding what constitutes proof and how to proceed when facts falter is crucial in both personal and professional life.