A “Fairly Highly Valued” Marke... Note

A “Fairly Highly Valued” Market: A Fed Chair Opines on Stocks, but should we listen?

In 1996, Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment sparked debate about central bankers' market timing abilities. Current Fed chair Jerome Powell's assessment of the market as "fairly highly valued" echoes this sentiment, suggesting a richly priced stock market. Despite economic headwinds like tariffs, wars, and politics, US equities, particularly tech stocks, have significantly rebounded in 2025 after a weak first quarter. The NASDAQ and S&P 500, after initial declines, showed strong recovery in the second and third quarters. Technology and communication services have been the leading sectors, with Alphabet and Meta being key drivers. The "Mag Seven" group of companies has disproportionately contributed to market capitalization growth. This year, small-cap stocks have also outperformed large-cap stocks, reversing a long-term trend. Value stocks have seen some improvement, and momentum investing has maintained its strength. Treasury rates have remained relatively stable throughout 2025, showing little volatility despite news of inflation and economic growth. Even a Moody's downgrade of US credit rating had only a transient impact on treasury rates. Corporate default spreads have also displayed minimal movement, indicating market resilience. Globally, equities have performed well, with international markets slightly outperforming the US in the first nine months of 2025. However, US equities regained their lead in subsequent quarters. Emerging markets like India, Africa, and the Middle East have experienced weaker performance this year.