Musings on Markets
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Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!
The author was traveling to Latin America when they heard about the tariff news announcement, which caught most people by surprise and led to a market markdown. The US equity indices declined almost 10% by the close of trading on Friday, with the technology sector losing the most in value. The author notes that the basis for the tariff estimates is not easily fixable, as it is based on the magnitude of the trade deficit of the United States with other countries. The market reaction was global, with all regions experiencing negative returns, and the worst-hit region was Small Asia, which saw equity values decline by 12.61%. The author analyzed the impact on US equities, breaking down companies by market capitalization, earnings yield, debt burden, and dividend-paying status. They found that the pain was widely distributed across the market cap classes, and that companies with the least debt performed worse than those with the most debt. The author also looked at the Mag Seven stocks, which collectively lost $1.55 trillion in value last week. Other markets, such as US treasury rates, oil, gold, and bitcoin, also reacted to the tariff announcement. The author concludes that the data points to a markdown in equity values rather than panic selling, and that the flight to safety was muted. They also present a crisis cycle, which includes a trigger event, market markdown, aftershocks, economic slowdown, and long-term effects on the economy and markets.