Conspiracy Theorists Don't Realize They're On the Fringe

A recent study published in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin found that conspiracy theorists greatly overestimate the number of people who share their beliefs. While participants in the study believed in conspiracy claims only 12% of the time, they thought they were in the majority 93% of the time. The researchers examined beliefs about various claims, including the Apollo Moon landings and Princess Diana's death, and found that believers consistently overestimated the number of people who agreed with them. The study suggests that overconfidence is a primary driver of conspiracy beliefs, leading to a significant false consensus effect.