Country Risk 2025: The Story b... Note

Country Risk 2025: The Story behind the Numbers!

The author updates equity risk premiums for countries semi-annually, sharing these estimates despite concerns about their misuse. Country risk is multifaceted, influenced by political structure, violence, corruption, and legal systems. Democracies and authoritarian regimes each present distinct policy risks for businesses. Exposure to violence impacts operations and increases costs, with significant global variations. Corruption disadvantages honest businesses and acts as an implicit tax, often linked to bureaucratic settings. Legal system quality, including enforcement timeliness, is crucial for business success. Sovereign ratings, while a common measure, focus on default risk and can have blind spots. Credit default swap markets offer a more timely but volatile alternative for assessing sovereign default risk. Country risk scores, though intended to be comprehensive, lack standardization and are difficult to compare. The author's interest in country risk is driven by its impact on the cost of equity and capital in corporate finance. To estimate country equity risk premiums, the author starts with the implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500. This involves calculating the expected return on the index and then adjusting the US Treasury bond rate for default risk to find a risk-free rate in dollars. The difference between the expected return and the risk-free rate yields the implied equity risk premium for the US.