Musings on Markets
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Country Risk: Drivers, Measures and Investment Implications - The 2026 Edition!
The author follows a ritual of posting data updates online, including an annual update on country risk, which is now available. Country risk is relevant to both businesses and investors, as it can affect revenue and costs, and is no longer diversifiable due to increased correlation across global equity markets. The author argues that country risk is driven by four factors: political structure, corruption, violence, and the strength of the legal system. The author uses various indices, such as the EIU's Democracy Index, Transparency International's corruption scores, and Vision of Humanity's peace scores, to measure these factors. The author also considers climate risk as a factor in country risk, but notes that it is not yet a major topic of discussion. To consolidate these risks into one number, the author looks at the debt market, where lenders determine interest rates based on perceived default risk. The author also examines sovereign ratings and sovereign CDS spreads as measures of sovereign default risk. Additionally, the author considers country risk scores, which evaluate countries based on different risk drivers and come up with composite scores. The author notes that country risk is a complex and multifaceted issue, and that measuring it requires a combination of different approaches. The author's annual update on country risk provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of country risk, and is a valuable resource for businesses and investors. Overall, the author emphasizes the importance of considering country risk in investment and business decisions, and provides a framework for doing so.