Data Update 2 for 2026: Equiti... Note

Data Update 2 for 2026: Equities get tested, and pass again!

The author analyzes the US equity market performance in 2025, a year marked by economic and political uncertainty. Despite negative headlines, the S&P 500 delivered a solid 17.72% return, though it was a mixed bag across sectors. Communication services and technology led the gains, while consumer staples and real estate lagged. Industry analysis revealed precious metals companies as top performers, with old economy businesses struggling. The article explores the fading of small-cap and value stock premiums, noting a potential return to balance.The piece then examines the "Mag Seven" tech stocks, showing their continued dominance, though with diverging performance. The market capitalization of the Mag Seven significantly increased and now accounts for a large portion of the US equity market. The author then addresses whether US stocks are overvalued based on high PE ratios. He counters this concern by highlighting robust earnings growth, earnings resilience, and healthy cash returns through buybacks. Finally, the author calculates an implied equity risk premium to assess market pricing, incorporating index level, cash flows, and interest rates.