Data Update 3 for 2026: The Tr... Note

Data Update 3 for 2026: The Trust Deficit - Bonds, Currencies, Gold and Bitcoin!

The author reflects on the disconnect between negative news events in 2025 and the performance of US equities. They focus on four key events: US tariffs, a US credit downgrade, a government shutdown, and challenges to the Federal Reserve’s independence. The core argument is that these events eroded trust in US institutions and influenced different markets. The bond market, surprisingly, showed little volatility, with declining treasury rates and stable inflation expectations. However, the US dollar weakened significantly against other currencies throughout the year. Gold and silver experienced massive gains, indicating a flight to safe-haven assets. The author suggests a loss of institutional trust, particularly in government and central banks, as the common thread explaining these market performances. The yield curve steepened, suggesting a marginally positive outlook for the US economy, despite concerns. Corporate bond yield spreads diverged, with lower-rated bonds suffering more. Ultimately, the author emphasizes the importance of central bank independence for economic stability.