Musings on Markets
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Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!
This update widens the data analysis beyond the US, focusing on global equity markets in 2025, country risk, and interest rate differences across currencies. The author argues that globalization and its subsequent backlash have significantly shaped global politics and economics in recent decades. The analysis of global equities demonstrates disparities in regional performance, with the US market still holding the largest global market capitalization. The author reminds investors that international diversification remains a crucial tool, despite the historical dominance of US stocks. The discussion on country risk highlights crucial factors like political structure, war, corruption, and legal rights. The author suggests a corporate life cycle to analyze economic development. Sovereign ratings from agencies like Moody's are used to measure country risk, but they have limitations, including delays in reacting to changes. The author also uses sovereign CDS to determine default spreads, highlighting the volatility in some markets.