Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a... Note

Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all!

The author reflects on the iconic Disney ride, "It's a Small World," and how it relates to their analysis of global market data in 2024. The author begins by discussing the performance of various indices in 2024, with the Merval index being the best performer, up over 170%. However, the author notes that comparing returns in indices can be problematic due to differences in construction, local currencies, and inflation.To address these issues, the author computes returns using a different approach, including all publicly traded stocks in each market, converting market capitalizations to US dollars, and aggregating market capitalizations at the end of 2023 and 2024. The results show that the aggregate market cap globally was up 12.17%, with the US equity market being a significant contributor to this growth.The author also examines the impact of currency movements on returns, noting that the US dollar strengthened against emerging market currencies in 2024. This led to a divergence in returns between local indices and dollar returns in some parts of the world.The author then discusses the challenges of estimating risk-free rates in different currencies, particularly in countries with high inflation or default risk. They propose a method for estimating risk-free rates using government bond rates and expected inflation rates.The author also explores the concept of country risk and how it affects expected returns. They estimate equity risk premiums by country, using a combination of local currency sovereign ratings and default spreads. The results show significant variations in equity risk premiums across countries and regions.Finally, the author emphasizes the importance of pricing in investing, noting that even the safest markets can be bad investments if the price is wrong. They discuss the use of multiples, such as price-earnings ratios and enterprise value-to-sales multiples, to assess pricing in markets.