Data Update 8 for 2026: Time f... Note

Data Update 8 for 2026: Time for Harvesting - Dividends and Buybacks

The author analyzes corporate dividend policy, arguing it's often dysfunctional for both companies and investors. Dividends are often set on autopilot or follow industry trends, leading to rigidity and potentially poor investment decisions. The author contrasts traditional dividends with stock buybacks, which are more flexible and have become the dominant cash return method. A rational cash return policy should be based on a firm's free cash flow to equity, considering investment needs. The ideal policy varies over a company's life cycle, with mature companies often being best suited for dividends. In 2025, the median dividend payout ratio was about 35% for US companies, and the median dividend yield was 1.10% in the US. The portion of total equity returns derived from dividends has decreased significantly, particularly in the US. The shift to buybacks is examined, with flexibility being one of the main drivers. The paper argues that clinging to dividend payments might show that a company is failing. The author ultimately suggests a shift is needed to focus on free cash flow in the cash return strategy. The author criticizes firms that do not act their stage and therefore damage themselves and shareholders.