Global M2 Can’t Predict Bitcoin Price, Says Quant Analyst

Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, has publicly criticized a popular Bitcoin price model promoted by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, calling it a textbook case of data illiteracy and overfitting. The model claims to show a close correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2, a measure of global money supply, by shifting M2 data forward by 10-12 weeks to predict Bitcoin's future price moves. However, Sina, a trained data scientist, argues that the model collapses under scrutiny and is a terrible failure of not understanding overfitting. He points out that the apparent correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 only exists because the data has been "tortured" to fit historical patterns. Sina also notes that the Global M2 data itself is inherently flawed, compiled by multiplying various central banks' M2 figures by exchange rates, which creates a misleading impression of daily fluctuations in global liquidity. The model fails when one zooms out from selective chart slices, and minor tweaks in lead time or scale can yield dramatically different outcomes. Sina argues that the model lacks a systematic foundation and is an example of overfitting, where the data is forced to match historical behavior but loses generalizability. He also questions whether Bitcoin might actually lead liquidity, not follow it, which reverses the causality implied by the Global M2 model. Sina concludes that the model is not a reliable tool for predicting Bitcoin's future price moves and warns against the dangers of overfitting.