Musings on Markets
Follow
Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!
The author re-evaluates SpaceX's valuation after reviewing its IPO prospectus, comparing it to their previous estimates based on limited data. The prospectus, while lengthy and filled with images, provided crucial financial data that replaced earlier estimations. SpaceX's revenue figures for launch and connectivity were close to the author's prior guesses, but xAI revenues were significantly underestimated. The company reported substantial net losses due to high research and development and interest expenses.The prospectus revealed SpaceX's cash and debt figures, with a significant increase in book equity primarily due to the xAI acquisition. Despite substantial debt, SpaceX's large cash reserves meant its net debt was negative, minimizing its impact on the overall valuation. The author's initial share count estimate was significantly lower than the prospectus figure, which also provided details on the planned use of proceeds for infrastructure investments.Governance concerns were highlighted, with Elon Musk retaining over 85% of voting rights through Class B shares. The author notes that the prospectus confirmed SpaceX as a money-losing, cash-burning company heavily influenced by Elon Musk. The company's value is driven by its future business evolution, with target revenues, operating margins, and reinvestment as key drivers.The prospectus offered historical revenue growth data, showing connectivity as the leading business in 2025, with AI expected to boost revenues significantly through its compute center lease. The author finds the prospectus's total addressable market (TAM) estimates, particularly for AI, to be unrealistically high, following a trend seen in other tech IPOs. Consequently, the author moderates their growth expectations for space launch and connectivity while doubling their target revenues for AI, acknowledging its immense capital requirements.Profitability analysis from the prospectus shows the space business having the highest gross margin due to reusable rocket technology, with operating losses stemming from R&D expenses. The connectivity business also shows improving gross margins.