Spot Dogecoin ETF Gains SEC Traction—Is A Price Surge Next?

Bitwise Asset Management has filed an amended S-1 for its proposed Dogecoin ETF, allowing for "in-kind" creations and redemptions, which is a significant step towards approval. This change aligns the ETF with the operational playbook approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for spot-bitcoin and spot-ether products. The tweak signals that SEC staff are now deeply engaged in the mechanics of custody and settlement. Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas views this as a positive sign, indicating SEC engagement and tracking with other spot approvals. The "in-kind" processing allows authorized participants to swap DOGE directly for ETF shares without tax friction and slippage. The SEC's willingness to consider this structure for a dog-branded altcoin is a significant shift from a year ago. Approval odds are converging on the high end of the spectrum, with Balchunas and fellow analyst James Seyffart raising their probability to "90 percent or higher". However, prediction markets have not fully reflected this optimism, with the contract for Dogecoin ETF approval in 2025 trading around 69%. Dogecoin's price has not yet reflected the regulatory tailwind, trading near $0.161, down roughly 2% on the day. Technical traders remain bullish on Dogecoin's longer-term picture, but caution that meme-coin exuberance ultimately hinges on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.