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Stock Prices, Earnings and Cashflows: The AI Effect plays through!
In late August 2026, discussions focused on rising interest rates and the surprising resilience of equities. This resilience was attributed to higher-than-expected corporate earnings and upward revisions for future earnings. September 2026 brought a significant increase in treasury yield rates, yet stock prices generally held their ground. The technology sector, in particular, saw substantial market capitalization gains. Aggregate market capitalization for all stocks increased significantly in September, with technology contributing the largest portion. This year's performance has been driven by a few key sectors, namely technology, energy, and materials. Despite overall market gains, a majority of individual stocks experienced price declines in the third quarter. An estimated implied equity risk premium suggests equities are priced reasonably, with an expected return of 8.99% over the ten-year treasury rate. The rise in AI capital expenditures is a major driver of the current market environment. These expenditures are creating revenues and earnings for suppliers, even as builders face initial costs. Publicly available financial data may understate the full impact of AI investments due to private companies and off-balance sheet entities. Aggregate capital expenditures in the US show a substantial increase, concentrated in technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. This surge in capital expenditures is reflected in increased book values for equity and debt across US companies. While capital expenditures initially reduce cash flows, they are generating revenues for suppliers, boosting overall corporate earnings. Aggregate earnings at US companies have seen significant growth, particularly in the first and second quarters of 2026. However, increased capital expenditures mean that free cash flows grow at a slower pace than earnings. Dividends and stock buybacks have shown reasonable growth, but net buybacks have moderated due to increased stock issuances.