Tariffs, production networks, ... Note

Tariffs, production networks, and spillovers: the case of a US-China trade war

A US-China tariff war has asymmetric macroeconomic effects, with the tariff-imposing country experiencing more inflation and the targeted country a larger output contraction. A 10 percentage-point reciprocal tariff increase leads to this outcome, amplified by production networks that spread the shock. Currency invoicing significantly influences transmission; dollar-priced border prices under heterogeneous invoicing weaken exchange rate expenditure-switching, deepening China's contraction relative to producer-currency pricing. This also alters third-country spillovers. The Euro Area (EA) sees a small aggregate response as positive trade diversion offsets weaker Chinese demand and multilateral adjustments. When tariffs are imposed on individual Chinese sectors, incidence is highly concentrated. Aggregate effects are not solely determined by the directly tariffed sector. Domestic propagation offsets US own-sector gains while reinforcing Chinese losses. The EA's response becomes a net effect of opposing trade margins. Tariff incidence depends on the tariff's target, shock propagation through production networks, and how invoicing affects border prices. This comprehensive framework provides a materially different assessment than one based solely on bilateral trade shares.