The $100K Mirage: Bitcoin’s Rally Not Backed By On-Chain Strength

Bitcoin briefly surpassed $100,000 this month, reaching nearly $108,000, but the surge was largely driven by traders using borrowed funds rather than new buyers. According to Glassnode, the volume on Bitcoin futures remained high in late June, but the excitement behind the rally has faded. Traders betting on short-term gains drove the market, while funding rates and the three-month futures basis moved lower, signaling less bullish conviction. Spot trading did not follow the futures boom, with daily spot volume remaining low compared to previous cycle highs. New cash from retail or long-term holders stayed on the sidelines, failing to flood into the market. However, institutional buyers such as Michael Saylor's Strategy, Metaplanet, and ProCap BTC continued to add to their holdings, purchasing around $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs also bought over $1.5 billion in fresh supply, indicating genuine interest from institutions. The supply of Bitcoin available on exchanges has tightened, with only 7 million BTC left freely available, which could support prices if demand holds up. Despite the recent rally, the market is waiting for a return of fresh spot demand or a stabilizing of futures bets to declare the uptrend back on solid ground. As of June 28, Bitcoin traded at $106,500, down 0.85% on the day.