Musings on Markets
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The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!
The month of April 2025 started with a market sell-off due to tariff news, resulting in a $9 trillion loss in global equities over two days. Despite the volatility, the market managed to surprise everyone by ending almost where it began. The equity indices went through significant up and down movements, but ultimately ended the month within 1% of their initial levels. The crisis spread globally, with China being the worst-performing region and India and Latin America tied for best performing. Technology, which was initially hit hard, made a comeback and ended the month as the second-best performing sector. Growth versus value investing also saw a reversal in April, with high PE stocks making a comeback. Large-cap companies outperformed small-cap stocks, and momentum returned in force, with the best-performing stocks in 2024 continuing to do well. The Mag Seven, a combination of large, high-growth, and technology companies, made a comeback in April, recovering almost all of their lost market capitalization. The sovereign CDS spread rose in April, indicating concerns about the trustworthiness of the US government, and the US dollar continued its decline. Commodity prices, including oil, delinked from equities and stayed down, suggesting a slowdown in global economies.