The Last Bitcoin Cycle? Swan Says History’s Turning

Bitcoin's current low volatility is misleading, according to Swan, a "Bitcoin-only" financial services firm, which believes the market is on the verge of a radical re-pricing. The familiar four-year boom-and-bust cycle is giving way to "the last rotation" where coins are being transferred from retail speculators to institutions with long-term investment horizons. This hand-off is from retail traders to corporate treasuries, ETFs, and multinationals such as BlackRock and Fidelity. So far, 2025 has defied the script, with big moves, shallower corrections, and longer periods of sideways chop, which is boring people. However, this boredom masks an invisible supply squeeze" where long-time holders are taking profits above $100,000 while "long-only buyers" are absorbing the float. These corporations are long-only buyers, not traders of Bitcoin, and coins migrating into corporate vaults are effectively removed from circulation. The firm's thesis is that supply dynamics make these rotations irreversible, and when long-term capital meets inelastic supply, the float starts vanishing, leading to explosive price action. The macro backdrop adds pressure, with a rare and dangerous split in which the dollar is weakening even as bond yields surge, funneling excess capital toward a neutral store of value. Swan concludes that this isn't just the next cycle, but the end of an era, and if you're selling now, you're likely handing your Bitcoin to hold indefinitely. The implication is stark, and the apparent tranquility near $105,000 is less a sign of exhaustion than the quiet before a permanent liquidity event.