Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 25-year-old former OpenAI employee, launched a hedge fund called Situational Awareness. This fund was built on the conviction that artificial intelligence would yield significant and immediate returns. The fund rapidly gained billions of dollars from investors and posted impressive gains of nearly 450% by late June. However, over a swift four-week period in July, the fund's public equity holdings plummeted by over two-thirds. Ultimately, the fund was forced to liquidate, with Citadel acquiring most of its public stock holdings. The dramatic rise and sharp fall of Leo's fund sparked varied interpretations among investors. Older investors emphasized the importance of experience alongside intelligence, while value investors found vindication in Aschenbrenner's failure to emulate Warren Buffett. AI skeptics saw a potential catalyst to deflate the prevailing AI enthusiasm. The author, however, uses this story to explore the concept of investing conviction. Conviction is defined as the degree of belief in an investment's potential for significant returns relative to its risks. It exists on a spectrum, from absolute certainty to minimal confidence. The absence of conviction can lead to inaction and a portfolio held entirely in cash. Conviction originates from a belief in the accuracy of one's assessment of an investment's fair price, the market's eventual correction to that price, and the timing of this correction within the investor's time horizon. This belief can stem from possessing private information, superior information processing, a deeper understanding of a business, or identifying a clear pricing mistake in the market.