Trump's incredibly volatile tariff landscape, in one chart

President Trump has rapidly changed the US trade landscape since February, introducing a volatile trade policy that changes daily. The weighted average tariff, which was 1.6% in 2017, has fluctuated greatly, reaching as low as 6.9% and as high as 28%. This unpredictability has created two economic risks: direct costs of higher import taxes and the sense of policy changing minute-to-minute. Corporate supply managers are struggling to adapt to changing circumstances, as the policy environment is less a one-time adjustment and more a constantly moving target. Evan Smith, CEO of Altana, notes that the private sector cannot gradually adapt to the unpredictable tariff regime. To adapt, companies need to be ready for whatever the world has in store, rather than trying to price in the exact current tariff schedule. This could lead to surges and shortages in the supply of goods for months to come, even if tariff policy stabilizes. Natasha Sarin of Yale notes that the uncertainty of the tariffs is having costs on the economy, regardless of where the tariffs ultimately land. Many tariff announcements don't even last days, and this uncertainty is already being seen in the economy. The rapidly changing trade policy has introduced a new era of trade policy that changes by the day.