UBS Finds iPhone Demand "Fizzled" In June, Expects Weak Momentum Ahead of September Launch

Apple is scheduled to report its 3Q25 earnings next Thursday, with investor interest focused on iPhone performance and services growth. UBS analysts reported a decline in iPhone demand in June, dropping 18% year-over-year, following a surge in sales during April and May driven by tariff concerns. This pull-forward in sales earlier in the quarter offset some of the near-term downside, leading to a 3.4% increase in total iPhone units for the quarter, reaching 45 million. Favorable foreign exchange rates also contributed to Apple exceeding revenue expectations for June. Despite the positive 3Q25 results, analysts lowered expectations for the September quarter, anticipating continued softness in iPhone demand. The iPhone unit forecast for September was reduced to 50 million, resulting in a revenue decrease to $46 billion and an EPS reduction to $1.64. Analysts predict muted iPhone demand into fiscal year 2026 due to the earlier pull-in of sales and anticipation of a form factor change in 2026. Consequently, they anticipate downward revisions to consensus revenue and EPS estimates for fiscal 2026. Despite these warnings about soft iPhone sales, UBS maintained its 12-month price target for Apple at $210.