What a 160-year-old theory about coal predicts about our self-driving future

The Jevons paradox, a principle in environmental economics, suggests that making driving easier and more pleasant with autonomous vehicles (AVs) could lead to increased driving, negating potential safety and environmental benefits. Despite claims that AVs will be safer and cleaner, they may actually increase crash deaths and emissions due to more miles driven. The paradox is named after economist William Stanley Jevons, who argued in the 19th century that improvements in steam engine design would lead to more coal use, not less. Similarly, highway expansions meant to alleviate congestion often lead to more driving, not less, as people take advantage of easier travel conditions. Autonomous vehicles could lead to more driving, as they make trips more comfortable and convenient, and may even contribute to suburbanization and larger, less energy-efficient homes. The impact of AVs on driving habits and the environment remains uncertain, but the Jevons paradox highlights the need to consider how much more driving they might induce, and whether that increase would outweigh any potential benefits.