Where Are We Now?

The author discusses the current market situation, highlighting the importance of the "Big Beautiful Bill" and the need for targeted tax cuts to drive growth and innovation. The recent social media spat between Trump and Elon Musk has quieted down, but notes that it's a concern for the Trump agenda. Tariffs are a major concern, with the July 8th deadline approaching, and the market is pricing in a "worst" case scenario of extensions on the pause. A deal with China is a top priority, but the Geneva Deal is not working as expected, and the President is getting directly involved with Xi. The author notes that short-term wins versus longer-term risks are a struggle, and protecting IP and national security interests should remain an integral part of any deal. The processing of rare earths and critical minerals is a major concern, and the author suggests that getting these businesses up and running domestically should be a priority. The author questions whether tariffs are tools to negotiate, generate revenue, or bring manufacturing back to the US. The goal of tariffs is unclear, and the author expects more clarity after the Big Beautiful Bill is passed. The author concludes that the market is too complacent with risks on the economic front, and that the impact of existing tariffs, policy uncertainty, or even confusion has not yet hit the economic data and markets.