A Nobel For the Big Big Questions

Noah Smith has criticized the 2024 Economics Nobel Prize for its shift back to "big-think" theories, questioning the prize's shift away from empirical validation. The prize was awarded to Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson for their work on institutions and development, despite lacking robust empirical validation. Unlike other science prizes, the Econ Nobel is given based on influence within the economics profession, rather than external validity. This approach has led to prizes being awarded for theories that have been later discredited, such as the 2004 prize for a theory that recessions are caused by technological slowdowns. In recent years, the prize has been given to empirical economists and game theorists whose work has practical applications and predictive power. However, the 2024 prize seems to revert back to valuing "big-think" theories over empirical validation.