ADP Employment Report Confirms 'No Hire, No Fire' Labor Market

The payrolls report is delayed due to a brief government shutdown, but the ADP employment report offers a concerning look at hiring trends. ADP's report reveals a disappointing job creation figure of only 22,000, significantly lower than the anticipated 45,000. Manufacturing continues to shed jobs, while healthcare demonstrates strong growth. Overall, private employers added fewer jobs in 2025 than in the previous year. Small businesses experienced job additions, contrasting the job losses seen in larger firms. Job changers saw their pay increase by 6.4%, though this growth rate is slower than the previous month. Employees who stayed in their positions experienced a modest increase in pay. These trends portray a labor market characterized by a slowdown in job creation. Wage growth, however, has managed to remain relatively stable. The current economic situation is described as "no hire, no fire" despite optimistic expectations for growth.