Fast Company
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AI was supposed to put white-collar professionals at risk. Instead, another group is shrinking fast
Traditional job impact predictions focused on the proportion of tasks an occupation could theoretically automate. These analyses often placed managerial and professional roles at high risk, contrary to recent findings. Economist Gad Levanon’s study of government employment data over two years revealed expanding managerial, engineering, science, and law professions. Conversely, clerical roles like data entry and bookkeeping, previously flagged as less vulnerable, are rapidly contracting. Levanon isolated occupation-specific growth against industry averages, confirming clerical decline is not industry-related. Experts suggest AI currently automates job tasks but not the accompanying responsibilities. Standardized, rules-based clerical processes are easier for AI to automate end-to-end. Companies are hesitant to replace entire professions where AI only automates parts of the work. Roles requiring thought leadership, team management, and profession-specific experience are less susceptible to AI replacement. Administrative, customer support, and back-office functions are expected to see continued declines. This evolving landscape causes workers, particularly middle management, to question their future value and security. Roles reliant on judgment and interpersonal skills, like management and law, are considered more insulated from automation.