Asian thermal coal prices have reached two-year highs as winter approaches. These prices are poised for further gains due to disruptions in natural gas and crude oil markets. Global refining issues, stemming from attacks on Russian refineries and Strait of Hormuz blockages, have prompted utilities to switch to coal. Analysts believe this refining crisis strengthens the long-term outlook for thermal coal demand. Newcastle coal futures have already increased significantly this year. However, China's coal output has decreased due to earlier mining accidents and subsequent safety inspections. While some Chinese mines are expected to restart, production increases will likely be gradual. A potential mitigating factor for coal demand could be above-normal temperatures forecast for Asia due to El Niño. This milder weather would reduce the need for heating. Overall, a complex interplay of supply disruptions, market shifts, and weather forecasts is influencing thermal coal prices.