Cocoa futures have surged by 100% since early March, nearing $6,000 per ton due to a "perfect storm" affecting West Africa. Analysts at Jefferies highlight new weather concerns in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the leading cocoa producers. Temperatures have been below average since March, while June saw excessive rainfall, increasing the risk of crop diseases like black pod and brown rot. Early crop surveys for Ivory Coast's 2026/27 season indicate poor pod development and reduced cherelle formation. Industry estimates predict a significant drop in cocoa production, down approximately 18% from the previous season. The global cocoa market is still facing dire conditions, with reduced surplus estimates for the 2024/2025 season. Although the stock-to-grinding ratio shows a slight improvement, it remains below historical averages. Traders are also concerned about a potential El Niño event later this year. This weather phenomenon could bring hot, dry winds to West Africa, further threatening cocoa output. The cumulative impact of these factors is driving the sharp rise in cocoa prices.