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Deutsche Bank: Tesla's Q2 Vehicle Deliveries Tracking Above Consensus Expectations
Deutsche Bank analysts predict Tesla will exceed expectations for the second quarter, forecasting approximately 416,000 vehicle deliveries. This estimate surpasses the general consensus by about 10,000 vehicles. If accurate, this would represent significant growth from the previous quarter and the same period last year. International markets are driving this expected rebound, particularly Europe, where deliveries are projected to rise nearly 40% year-over-year. Improved demand in Europe is cited as the primary reason for outpacing expectations. China is also expected to contribute positively, although with more modest growth of around 3% year-over-year. Through May, China's registrations were close to 74,000, with an estimated total of 133,000 for the quarter. Solid June order activity in China suggests Tesla can meet its quarterly target there. In contrast, North America remains Tesla's weakest market, with deliveries expected to decline about 21% from last year. Despite this decline, North American volumes are still projected to improve sequentially, indicating some stabilization. Deutsche Bank remains optimistic about Tesla's full-year outlook, expecting around 1.63 million deliveries, essentially flat performance without new models. The report suggests international demand may be sufficient to offset North American weakness without significant new product launches.