FOMC Minutes Tilt Hawkish: 'In... Note

FOMC Minutes Tilt Hawkish: 'Inflation Risks Skewed To The Upside' Due To AI

Following the July 19th FOMC meeting, gold, bitcoin, and oil outperformed, while the dollar and bonds lagged, with stocks showing moderate gains. Rate hike expectations significantly decreased due to weaker economic data released since the meeting. Fed watchers were seeking clarity on the Fed's policy reaction function and current data focus. Market participants had anticipated the FOMC minutes to reveal broad hawkish sentiment, which could have reignited rate hike bets. However, the minutes are backward-looking, and the Fed can selectively emphasize certain messages. Many expected a hawkish edit to the minutes due to rising bond yields and concerns about Fed credibility.The minutes confirmed a hawkish tilt, with most participants believing higher rates would be necessary if inflation did not fall. Several favored raising rates at the July meeting to forestall future hikes. One participant, Warsh, proposed reducing the annual number of policy meetings from eight to six to allow more time for strategic monetary policy considerations. While this change would not occur this year, it signifies a potential shift in the central bank's operations. Inflation concerns were central, with most anticipating a step-down but acknowledging the possibility of persistent elevation. Fed staff noted an upside skew in inflation risks and the potential broader effect of AI investment on prices. Labor market conditions were described as stable with balanced demand and supply. A couple of participants noted that the ample-reserves regime had aided orderly market functioning. The minutes appeared sparser in actionable detail than usual, aligning with a lack of forward guidance and the potential for fewer meetings.
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