Brazil's upcoming presidential election is poised to significantly impact its equity market. A survey by Goldman Sachs reveals that half of global investors anticipate at least a 20% rise in the Brazil equity ETF, EWZ, by year-end if right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro wins. Polls indicate Bolsonaro is gaining ground, potentially tied or closing the gap in a second-round runoff. Historically, voter turnout has favored the candidate with higher predicted absence rates, a factor not always captured by polls.Investors see considerable upside in Brazilian equities, which are currently the least owned asset class among those surveyed. Foreign capital is beginning to flow back into Brazil as the election nears, evidenced by record high EWZ Call Open Interest. Analysts suggest strategies like EWZ Call Spreads for November or going long the Rate Sensitive basket, GSBZRATE Index. Brazil boasts the world's highest real interest rate, and its equities are highly correlated with local rates.A potential re-rating of the GSBZRATE basket could occur if local rates are cut, with expectations of 200-300 basis points reduction if Bolsonaro wins. Historically, this basket has outperformed the broader Ibovespa index when interest rate cuts are priced in. Bolsonaro's lead in betting markets has coincided with a rebound in Brazilian stocks. This potential shift aligns with a broader rightward trend observed across South America and Europe.