Here Comes QE Lite: Yields, Do... Note

Here Comes QE Lite: Yields, Dollar Tumble, Gold Spikes After Treasury Unexpectedly Doubles Size Of Long-End Treasury Buybacks

For years, market watchers debated whether Treasury buyback auctions were a form of soft quantitative easing. This website consistently argued they were not, despite claims from some financial commentators. The Treasury had previously stated its buyback programs were not quantitative easing. They even increased the total liquidity buyback amount over time, still maintaining it was not QE.The debate has now been seemingly resolved by an announcement from the US Treasury. With long-term yields reaching multi-year highs, the Treasury decided to significantly increase the size of its liquidity support buyback operations. Specifically, the maximum size per operation for longer-dated nominal coupon securities will at least double from $2 billion to $4 billion.This change will take effect in September and continue for the remainder of the refunding quarter. The Treasury cited strong market demand and the need to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated sectors as reasons for the increase. However, the author interprets this move as a reaction to market panic, suggesting the liquidity justification is a pretext.The piece asserts that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent likely implemented this change due to concerns about demand for Treasuries being crowded out by investments in areas like AI. The market reacted immediately and strongly to the announcement. Long-term Treasury yields dropped sharply, while equity futures and gold prices surged.This event highlights the increasing total US debt, which is approaching $40 trillion. The author concludes that the situation for US debt is likely to worsen from this point forward.
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