US home prices have increased by 494% over the past 40 years, according to the Freddie Mac House Price Index. The top 10 states with the biggest home price gains between 1984 and 2024 were Washington, Oregon, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, California, Hawaii, Utah, Montana, Idaho, and Maine. During this period, overall inflation rose by 203% and median US household incomes increased by 233%. Despite the significant disparity between home price growth and inflation/median incomes, housing affordability is not as bad as expected. Traditional housing affordability measurements show that the situation in 2024 is only marginally worse than in 1984. This is largely due to lower mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate being around 7% in 2024 compared to 13-15% in 1984. However, considering other factors like property taxes and home insurance could make 2024 housing affordability slightly worse. State-level home prices did not rise in a straight line over the past four decades, with bumps along the way. The past 40 years of home price growth does not necessarily predict the next 40 years. Overall, while home prices have soared, housing affordability is not as dire as expected due to lower mortgage rates.
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