How the energy crisis could be... Note
Axios

How the energy crisis could become a food security crisis

Current global conflicts, specifically the Iran war and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, are creating a significant strain on world agriculture. This multidirectional squeeze threatens to escalate into a global food crisis. Wars and extreme weather events are converging, endangering food supplies and increasing prices, particularly impacting vulnerable economies. The El Niño phenomenon is also poised to exacerbate existing problems, including restricted fertilizer supplies and higher fuel costs for farming. A new report from the S&P Global Institute offers a comprehensive examination of these interconnected issues. The International Monetary Fund has also issued warnings, projecting a 10% increase in fertilizer prices and a 5% rise in food costs globally by 2026. These higher prices pose severe risks to poverty, food security, and political stability in many nations. Agricultural production relies on consistent access to natural gas, sulfur for fertilizer, diesel for machinery and transport, and open trade routes, all of which are currently under pressure. The report highlights that conflict is simultaneously challenging these essential elements, much like El Niño affects harvests. This situation poses an increasing risk, especially for low-income countries where food constitutes a substantial portion of household expenditure. The disruptions could have far-reaching consequences for agricultural output across the globe. Additionally, the report points out that the diesel supply crunch, combined with pro-biofuels policies, is making crop production for fuel more profitable than for food in some areas. While a full-blown food crisis is not guaranteed, the confluence of war-induced supply disruptions and weather-related harvest reductions is creating the conditions for such a crisis to emerge.
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