How to measure the economy whe... Note
Axios

How to measure the economy when the government isn't doing it

The government shutdown significantly disrupted the release of crucial economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This halt forced companies and investors to urgently seek alternative data sources to make vital business decisions. Private firms are now tracking a wide range of unconventional indicators, such as restaurant reservations and tourist visits, to gauge consumer spending and the job market. Job sites and payroll data providers are offering more conventional alternatives for labor market analysis. There has been a notable surge in interest from businesses in private data firms' economic reports. The timing of the BLS shutdown is particularly problematic as the economy is undergoing rapid changes due to policy shifts and a slowing labor market. This situation makes it challenging to accurately assess the current stage of the business cycle. The pandemic previously highlighted the importance of various non-traditional economic indicators, like toilet paper sales and port activity. Historically, economists have used creative indicators like men's underwear sales and the lipstick index to understand economic trends. Despite the availability of many alternative data points, economists and investors consider BLS data to be the gold standard. Ultimately, while alternative data can offer insights, it is not a true substitute for official government statistics.
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