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Investors want a bigger reward for lending money
Treasury yields are rising because investors demand higher rewards to lend money, especially long-term. This surge reflects increased demand for capital from governments for deficits and companies for investments like AI infrastructure. Borrowers must pay more due to this competition. While inflation expectations remain in check, higher policy rates are likely needed to balance the economy. This also increases the cost of financing the national debt and keeps mortgage rates elevated. Long-run inflation pricing has remained relatively stable despite climbing Treasury yields. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is slightly up due to Middle East conflict but still within the Fed's target zone. Investor demand for higher rewards to lend for the long haul is driving real yields up, particularly at longer maturities. The current rate environment is shaped by limited loanable funds and strong demand, a reversal from the 2010s. Governments' larger deficits and companies' investment boom are competing for the same money. This trend increases U.S. government debt servicing costs, potentially costing taxpayers trillions in additional interest. These sustained yield surges suggest a significant shift in global capital markets.