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Iran Hormuz Attack Spree Starts Choking Oil Flows (Again), UBS Warns
Iranian drone attacks on commercial ships are disrupting Middle Eastern energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty-four attacks have been reported this month, with recent strikes sinking two Emirati container ships. This surge in activity has led to a significant drop in crude and petroleum product flows exiting the Gulf of Oman. Flows have fallen to 9.1 million barrels per day recently, down from a peak of 17 million barrels daily in early October. Shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz are deteriorating, with attacks occurring at the highest intensity since the conflict began. Iran is reportedly employing a new strategy using spotters in small boats to target vessels. While oil exports have declined, liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows are holding up but at much lower levels, approximately 25% of pre-conflict volumes. Gulf crude loadings, excluding Iran, have rebounded to over 12 million barrels per day recently. However, loadings from Yanbu and bypass routes have decreased. The market impact is evident in longer-dated Brent Crude futures, which are repricing higher, indicating growing concerns about future supply. The International Energy Agency has warned that a global diesel shortage is likely to persist into the first half of 2027.