Axios
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It's a 5% world. We're just living in it
The cost of borrowing money is rising rapidly, pushing most risk-free interest rates above 5%. This trend signals the end of the era of cheap capital from 2008 to 2021. Savers will benefit from higher returns on their cash, but borrowers face increased costs for mortgages and car loans. The housing market is expected to suffer, potentially entering a standstill as rates approach 8%. The U.S. government's fiscal outlook is also worsening, with higher debt servicing costs projected. Current projections assumed lower interest rates, and a sustained surge will significantly increase the national debt. The Federal Reserve may need to raise rates further to combat inflation amidst economic growth. Increased demand for capital comes from AI giants and the U.S. government, intensifying competition for individual borrowers. Higher real yields, rather than inflation fears, are driving this surge in rates. This new environment necessitates a reevaluation of tax policies, spending, asset prices, and what is considered normal in the global economy.