Job Openings Plunge Below Lowest Estimate As Gov't Openings Crater; Hiring Plummets

The ADP report showed a solid rebound, but the JOLTS job openings report painted a grim picture. November's JOLTS data revealed a significant decline in job openings, reaching the lowest level since September 2024. This marked a major miss compared to expectations and was lower than even the most pessimistic projections. Job openings decreased in sectors like accommodation, food services, and transportation, while construction saw an increase. A notable drop occurred in government employment, reaching levels not seen since early 2021. The labor market has shifted from supply-constrained to demand-constrained, with fewer job openings than unemployed workers. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell below 1.0x for the first time in four years. New hires experienced a substantial decline, the largest in a single month since June 2024. The number of people quitting their jobs did experience a rebound. The JOLTS report's negative data suggests a potential employment recession and reinforces the possibility of Fed rate cuts. The author suggests to disregard the report's findings due to the government shutdown influencing data accuracy.