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Jobs report gives labor market a yellow card
The job market is showing less momentum entering the summer, indicating a less durable rebound than previously thought. Hiring in June fell significantly short of expectations, with payrolls increasing by only 57,000. Revisions also revealed weaker hiring in previous months, with a combined downward adjustment of 74,000 jobs. The average payroll gains over the last three months have decreased, suggesting the spring labor market rebound is fading.Fewer Americans were employed and actively seeking work in June, which mechanically lowered the unemployment rate. The participation rate for prime-age workers saw its largest one-month decline outside the pandemic in over a decade. This combination of slower hiring, downward revisions, and reduced labor force participation presents a more complex situation for policymakers. It remains unclear if this is a temporary dip or the beginning of a sustained slowdown.However, wages provided a bright spot, with average hourly earnings accelerating for the second consecutive month. This acceleration could be influenced by slower hiring in lower-paying sectors. Financial markets remain largely unswayed by this single report, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by year-end only slightly decreasing. The overall trend over several months is considered more significant than any individual jobs report.