Lucky vs. Repeatable

Discussing luck can be tricky because it often evokes feelings of envy or inadequacy. A better way to understand luck is to consider what aspects of success are not repeatable. While Jeff Bezos's creation of Amazon wasn't solely based on luck, many factors contributing to its success, such as market conditions and technological advancements, cannot be replicated. It's crucial to differentiate between repeatable skills and non-repeatable circumstances when learning from successful individuals. Dollo's Law of Irreversibility, which states that once a species loses a trait, it cannot regain it due to the complex path that led to its initial development, illustrates this concept. Similarly, in business and investing, while history offers valuable lessons, the past is not a perfect predictor of the future because many factors are not repeatable. Focusing on specific, non-repeatable lessons can be detrimental, as seen in the dot-com bubble and subsequent housing crisis. Instead, concentrate on identifying and emulating repeatable skills, like Warren Buffett's patience or John D. Rockefeller's understanding of distribution. While we can learn from the risk-taking of Elon Musk or the long-term vision of Jeff Bezos, their specific industries and the contexts in which they thrived might not be replicable. Ultimately, focusing on repeatable skills and principles increases our chances of achieving success.